Worries about rising inflation have spooked stock and bond investors. As a reminder, inflation occurs when the prices of goods and services rise and as a result, every dollar you spend in the economy purchases less. The annual rate of inflation over from 1917 until 2017 has averaged just over 3 percent annually. That might not sound like much, but consider this: today you need $7,272.09 in cash to buy what $1,000 could buy in 50 years ago.
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We knew that a stock market correction was coming, but why then did everyone seem so shocked when it arrived on Februarys 8th? Corrections, defined as 10 percent drops from the recent highs (January 26th), usually occur every year or so. Until last week, it had been two full years since the major US indexes had corrected. In other words, we were overdue for a drop.
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If you’ve been thinking that stock markets have been pretty quiet in 2017, you are right--it's been more like the merry-go-round and less like a rollercoaster. Through the first seven months of the year, none of three major stock market indexes has fallen by more than 5 percent. And one gauge of market movement, the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), which measures investors’ expectation of the ups and downs of the S&P 500 Index over the next month, recently dropped to its lowest level in 24 years. Low VIX readings have tended to be equated with muted anxiety and high stock prices. Amid this environment, you might be wondering what could go wrong? There are always risks that persist and while their existence does not mean that long-term investors should change their game plans, they are a reminder to guard against complacency and to always approach investing with caution.
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