Never underestimate the ability of Americans to bounce back from hard economic times.
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As the Fed prepares for its two-day policy meeting on July 26 and July 27, there may be a few breaks in the cloudy economic picture for our central bankers.
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The September jobs report rescued what was shaping up to be a tough week for investors. After one measure of U.S. manufacturing fell to a decade low in September and a separate service sector index dropped to a three-year low, the Labor Department reported 136,000 jobs were added in September.
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For the first time in a decade, the Federal Reserve is likely to cut interest rates. Citing the “crosscurrents” of slowing global growth, uncertainty over trade policy, and static prices, the central bank will preemptively shave 0.25 percent from the fed funds rate, putting the new range at 2-2.25 percent.
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Dow 27K! S&P 500 3K! NASDAQ 8200! Just months after the bull market in stocks and the current expansion each became the longest on record, U.S. equity indexes reached more milestones last week. Sure, the economy is expanding, but you can thank one person for the recent leg up in the bull market rally: Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
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While many were enjoying an extended break last week, there was good news and bad news on the financial independence front. For the economy, independence from a Federal Reserve rate cut proved to be the right course of action, at least for now.
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Amid renewed Presidential criticism and evidence of a slowing economy, Fed officials will convene a two-day policy meeting this week and the pressure is on. As always, central bankers have to balance maintaining a strong enough economy to foster job growth, but it can’t run too hot, which might trigger inflation. Right now, there’s a battle brewing inside the collective Fed’s Head between action and inaction.
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The government reported that the economy added a better than expected 263,000 jobs in April. It was the 103rd straight month of job growth, the longest streak on record. Nearly ten years into the expansion, job creation is 205,000 for the first four months of 2019, just above the monthly amount added since the labor market bottomed out in 2010.
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