Fed actions have helped cool inflation, without pushing the economy into a recession, at least so far.
Read MoreNever underestimate the ability of Americans to bounce back from hard economic times.
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Last week, the Federal Reserve decided not to raise interest rates. The more dovish Fed outlook pushed down interest rates, which led mortgage rates to 14-month lows. The current 30-year fixed rate loan stands at just under 4.3 percent, just in time for the spring home buying season.
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Welcome to the third government shutdown of 2018! Did you forget about the first two? In January, there was a three-day closure, and then in February, there was the one-day sequel. In both of those instances, investors shrugged off the news and stocks actually edged up during those days-long shutdowns.
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Two words from Fed Chair Jerome Powell moved markets last week: “JUST BELOW.” He was talking about short-term interest rates, which are just below neutral, a Goldilocks level that is designed to neither speed up-nor slow down-economic growth. Powell’s assessment was a change from a comment he made in early October, when he said rates were a “long way” from neutral.
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The U.S. economy is experiencing “a particularly bright moment,” according to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which is why Fed officials increased interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point to a new range of 2 to 2.25 percent and are likely to hike one more time by the end of the year. The strength is likely to persist into next year. According to the central bank’s “dot plot,” which is intended to forecast future actions, there will be four rate hikes by the end of 2019.
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President Trump is not happy with the Federal Reserve. In an interview with CNBC, he said that while he put a “very good man” at the helm of the central bank (Jerome Powell), he’s “not thrilled” that interest rates are rising. The remarks got a lot of attention, because for the past twenty years or so, presidents and administration officials have abstained from commenting on the Fed’s monetary policy to preserve the central bank’s independence from partisan pressure.(For more on the complicated relationship between the Fed and Congress, check out my interview with author and Fed expert, Mark Spindel.)
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With the release of the Labor Department's June employment report, it’s time to assess how the economy is doing, six months into 2018.
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After stock markets powered forward (NASDAQ and Russell 2000 hit new all-time highs) and contentious trade talk continued, this week, the focus turns to the Federal Reserve. For the second time this year, policy makers are expected to raise short-term interest rates by a quarter of a percent to a new range of 1.75 to 2 percent. If so, it would be the sixth quarter-point bump since the current rate tightening cycle started in December 2015.
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