Welcome to the third government shutdown of 2018! Did you forget about the first two? In January, there was a three-day closure, and then in February, there was the one-day sequel. In both of those instances, investors shrugged off the news and stocks actually edged up during those days-long shutdowns.
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The U.S. economy is experiencing “a particularly bright moment,” according to Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, which is why Fed officials increased interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point to a new range of 2 to 2.25 percent and are likely to hike one more time by the end of the year. The strength is likely to persist into next year. According to the central bank’s “dot plot,” which is intended to forecast future actions, there will be four rate hikes by the end of 2019.
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With the release of the Labor Department's June employment report, it’s time to assess how the economy is doing, six months into 2018.
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After stock markets powered forward (NASDAQ and Russell 2000 hit new all-time highs) and contentious trade talk continued, this week, the focus turns to the Federal Reserve. For the second time this year, policy makers are expected to raise short-term interest rates by a quarter of a percent to a new range of 1.75 to 2 percent. If so, it would be the sixth quarter-point bump since the current rate tightening cycle started in December 2015.
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If you feel like things are more expensive, you are right. Despite a slightly weaker than expected inflation report in April, this year, prices have accelerated faster than Fed officials anticipated just a few months ago. Last week we learned that headline inflation increased to a 14-month high of 2.5 percent from a year ago in April, due in large part to rising gas prices. Excluding food and energy the core rate increased by 2.1 percent.
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What happened to the tax cut bump to economic growth? After expanding by a brisk 2.9 percent in the fourth quarter of last year and the 3.3 percent rate in the third quarter, the economy decelerated a bit in the first quarter to an annualized pace of 2.3 percent, consistent with good, not great growth.
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Stocks dropped by nearly 3 percent Thursday and another 2 percent on Friday, closing out the steepest one-week percentage decline for US indexes since January 2016. The proximate cause was President Trump's announcement that the U.S. would levy 25 percent tariffs on up to $60 billion dollars worth of Chinese imports.
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Get ready for the first Fed rate hike of 2018. Newly minted Fed Chair Jerome Powell will preside over this week’s two-day meeting, where officials will also release their updated economic projections and future rate hikes. Analysts at Capital Economics believe that Fed “consensus is shifting from three to four rate hikes this year.”
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